Git Yo Weight Up!

It all comes down to this. Practically a years worth of working out and film study and pouring over playbooks comes down to 4 hours this Sunday under the bright lights of Raymond James Stadium. One team will live on in glory forever and one team will experience the dejection inherent in failure. Cardinals/Steelers, who is going to latch on to the opportunity and ride off into the sunset? Well first I will analyze what each team needs to do. Then I will analyze the likelihood of them being able to do it. And finally I will make my prediction.

What Arizona needs to do.

On Offense

1. Keep Kurt Warner clean: This might be the key to the whole game. Kurt Warner may not have the biggest arm in the league anymore but he can still pick a defense apart with surgical precision when he has the time and he will stand and deliver a ball in the face of a big rush. The problem is you don't want to put him in that situation many times. While he is tough, he is also still 37 years old and repeated hits by Harrison and Woodley would be hazardous to his health. he also isn't very fleet of foot anymore (if he ever was) and throwing on the run is not his forte. But with the weapons he has on offense, with time he could attack down the field and keep the Steelers on their heels

2. Run the ball. The Cardinals need to run the ball no matter what the yardage, at least 28 to 30 times a game. The reason is simple. Any play where Edge or Hightower are running the ball is a play that Warner isn't getting hit. Besides that the myth is that it is harder to run against a 3-4 and thats absolutely not true. What you have to be willing to do is to take some losses on some run plays knowing that if you continue to run the ball sooner or later you will pop a big one. Also when you are running the ball you allow your offensive line to work on the D Line and Linebackers of the Steelers and try to wear them down throughouot the game.

3. Breaston has a big day: Larry Fitzgerald is going to get his and I expect Anquan Boldin to do his thing underneath but when the blitzes come early and often from the Steelers the third wide reciever is usually matched up with a linebacker or safety. The Cardinals have to exploit this mismatch early in the game to put some doubt in the Steelers' minds about blitzing so often. If he can get 5 catches and a few big first downs I think he could change the Defensive gameplan of the Steelers.

On Defense

1. Blitz on early downs and play coverage on 3rd down: I know this runs contra to some people's idea of conventional wisdom but in my opinion your gameplan should reflect what the opposition likes to do. Knowing that the Steelers like to run on early downs gives great reason to blitz. If the blitz works on first or second down then the likely hood is that you will end up with 3rd and long. Now in my personal opinion the Raven's problem last week was that they decided to blitz more on third down instead of play zone. Some of that of course had to do with their best pass rusher being hurt and also inherently the 3-4 generally forces you to blitz if you want to get pressure. But because the Cardinals run a 4-3 and they have a very good cover 2 scheme as evidenced in the playoff game versus the Panthers. Ben Rothlisberger makes his big plays when he breaks the pocket and hits a guy who because he is singled up simply has to play sandlot and get open. If the Cardinals rush 4 and drop 7, even if Big Ben breaks the pocket he is going to be faced with an umbrella coverage staring him in the face and if he chooses to throw the ball on the run there is a good chance of a pick.

2. When you blitz bring it up the gut: What this doies is allows the Defensive Ends which are used to keeping a Quarterback in the pocket to keep containment. And it also gets pressure in Big Ben's face which makes it harder to see the passing lanes. By forcing Rothlisberger to escape the rush by going up forward you also increase the likelyhood that he gets stroked by your Middle Linebacker if he tries to tuck it and run.

3. Be alert for screens: One of the things the Steelers are very good at is running screen plays. If they catch you in a blitz and throw a screen it has the potential to go for a long time. Its also a safe play to run if Big Ben gets off to a slow or erratic start. For the Cardinals to win they have to take away the ability for the Steelers to gain big yardage off of that play because succesful screen plays tend to give a team momentum. The most important thing will be discipline by the secondary. The flat player has to come up and force it in, the curl player has to keep his outside arm free, the safety has to feel the alley and the middle zone player has to make the tackle if it cuts back.


What the Steelers need to do to win

On Offense

1. Willie Parker has to have a big day: In contrast to the Cardinals it will matter to the Steelers whether they make good yardage running the ball or not. Because of the nature of their offense the running game has to work to keep them out of third and long situations. Also if Willie Parker has a big day it will invite the Cardinals to bring a safety into the box opening things up on the outside for Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward. If the Cardinals are able to drop 7 and still stop the run the Steelers will be in for a long day.

2. Heath Miller Heath Miller Heath Miller: Anybody watching the Arizona/Eagles game should have noticed that their tight end who most of us had never heard of torched the Cardinals defense all over the field. If the Cardinals have an obvious weak link I would say its Aaron Francisco who comes in on third downs. If the Steelers see him matched up with Miller they should wear that matchup out. He should be the only person who isn't literally double covered on most passing plays. Again if he makes enough catches it will cause the Cardinals to adjust and open things up to Ward and Holmes

3. Be methodical. Where most teams go wrong against the Cardinals is they challenge them down field too much. What this does is it give the Arizona D Line the opportunity to get pressure on the Quarterback as these plays usually take a little longer. And it also challenges one of the best ball hawking safety tandem in the league especially when they are in a Cover 2 look. So impatience can lead to turnovers. But when teams take the time and mix in the run and short to intermediate pass game against the Cardinals then you see those Safeties cheating down trying to get involved and thats when you can try to sneak one in behind them. Also because they have a smaller defense, the longer you are on the field, the more you wear them down. And lastly by keeping the chains moving you take time off the clock and keep the Arizona offense on the sideline much like the Steelers did in the third quarter of their game against the Ravens.


On Defense

1. Step off the bus blitzing: There is an old saying that to kill the snake you cut off its head. The Steelers' singular purpose should be to pound Kurt Warner into submission. He is the glue that holds everything together for that offense. Fitzgerald will probably get his because he is just too gifted even for double coverage at times and because the Steelers blitz so much I believe Boldin will get the ball a lot too. That can not be the focus. If they try to focus on covering the receivers Kurt Warner will have a field day. But if they touch Warner up all game they will either force him into making a mistake or at some point we will have a Matt Leinart sighting.

2. Punish the Running Backs even when they don't have the ball. Whether it be in coverage or when Edge or Hightower are picking up blitzes the Linebackers need to be physical with them. If they can do this then they won't have to worry as much about the Cardinals being able to run the ball in the fourth quarter. Also if you can get one of them out of the game I don't think the other can carry the load for the duration.

3. Force Kurt Warner to his left: Lets be real here, Warner is a bit of a statue back there and he won't suddenly get young legs by Sunday. If the Steelers can bring pressure from his right and force him to go left you basically have put him in the position of having to throw the ball away or take a hit because he can't run and throwing on the run going to his left has never been his forte. Its pretty simple but could be very effective.


X Factor to win


Arizona Cardinals: If the Cardinals come out no huddle at some point during the game they could seriously throw the Steelers off their game. Because the Steelers have those big bulky Defensive Linemen if they go quick no huddle those guys are likely to wear down fast. Also most 3-4 Defenses rely heavily on substitutions in order to create favorable matchups. If the Cardinals catch them in the wrong personnel they could go no huddle and take advantage of that and march the team down the field or force the Steelers to call a timeout.

Pittsburgh Steelers: If Santonio can make a big play returning a punt its likely to give his team huge momentum. I don't know if the Cardinals will be crazy enough to punt to him but they haven't had good punt coverage all year.


Conclusions

1. I don't believe that the Cardinals will be able to keep Warner upright.

2. I do believe the Cardinals will run the ball.

3. I don't believe that Breaston will have a big game because of the pressure on Warner

4. I do believe the Cardinals will have the right game plan but I don't believe they will limit Parker's yards

5. I do believe that the Cardinals will blitz up the middle

6. I don't believe the Cardinals will be hurt by a screen.

7. I do believe Willie Parker will have a big day

8. I don't believe that Heath Miller will have a big day

9. I do believe the Steelers will be methodical

10. I do believe the Steelers will have the right game plan

11. I do believe the Steelers will rough up Edge and Hightower.

12. I do believe they will force Kurt Warner left.


My pick

Pittsburgh Steelers in a thriller 34-21