Co Ops Vs The Public Option

I know a lot of people are going to spend time debating the merits of a co op system that Kent Conrad has proposed versus a public option that Democrats in 4 out of 5 Congressional committees have proposed but I really think its a useless and pointless conversation. I will admit up front that I am not a policy wonk on the level of an Ezra Klein or a Rachel Maddow, not even close. That doesn't mean policy doesn't matter to me, it surely does. And I try to study up on all the issues. But I just have quite aways to go before I learn about every intricate detail of health care reform.

Having said that, my area of interest is usually the politics of any given issue. And its because of the politics of the situation that I feel confident in saying that there won't be an co op in a final version of the bill. Here is why. For a bill to make it to the floor of the Senate first you have to get the Senate Finance bill out of committee. Now we can all assume at this point that the Finance bill will have a co op in it. But what we can't assume is that the Republicans who have been negotiating with Baucus will actually vote for the bill to come out of committee. So what I forsee is that even after all the hand wringing and wrangling, neither Mike Enzi nor Chuck Grassley will vote for the bill to come out of committee.

That's strike one.

At that point I imagine it will still come out of committee on a largely partisan vote maybe picking off one Republican vote. At that point it will come to the floor of the Senate. Now when that happens there will be a process to have amendments added. I expect that there will be a Republican amendment offered to strip the bill of the co ops. I don't think it will pass but I do think it will be close.

That's strike two.

Then when that process is done the bill still has to be voted on by the full Senate. I can't see a scenario where there will be any more than 3 or 4 Republican votes for the bill at that point. And I don't think any of those 3 or 4 votes will come from Enzi or Grassley.

That's strike three.

At that point Republicans will have shown no less than three times that they are not going to support the bill no matter what concessions are made. And its at that point that Democratic Senate leadership would have to go into conference talks with House Democratic leadership to come up with a final bill. They will have no leverage at all to try to replace a public option with a co op when the Republicans will have revealed themselves. And bigger than that it won't be Max Baucus and Kent Conrad in the room doing the negotiating. I also believe that President Obama will have weighed in at that point that he will not accept a bill without a public option.

So to sum it all up, even if the Finance committee comes out with a bill that includes a co op instead of a public option, Republicans will not support it, and in light of that it will be dead on arrival when its time to reconcile the House and Senate bills.

Now I realize in the meantime there will be a lot of moaning and groaning over this issue but its not really even worth the waste of time and energy. We should definitely be pushing our Senators to support a public option and for our progressives and liberals in the House not to cave on the issue. But its clear to me that co ops just aren't politically viable. You can book mark this post and come back and point and laugh at me if I am ultimately proves wrong, but I really don't think I will be.

Update: Ezra Klein makes a pretty similar point about the process but with a lot more literary skill than I could muster. Go check it out.