The Politics Of The Public Option: Concern Troll Edition

I keep hearing from folks and seeing comments on blogs from people who supported President Obama in the general election, but who aren't self described liberals or progressives, voicing their concern that "the left" is pressing too hard for the inclusion of a public option in health care reform. The consensus from these concern trolls seems to be that the DFHs are going to hurt President Obama and the Democrats if they push too hard for a public option and health care reform collapses. Now the truth is, most of these people haven't even educated themselves on what a public option is or why it is vital for health care reform if real reform is what we are after. Because of this I won't even go there with them on the importance of a public option in general, I'll just direct them here for a pretty good explanation of it. But what I will do is now talk about the political implications of a public option whether its included in health care reform or not.

First of all who wins and who loses if a public option isn't included in health care reform? The winners to me are obvious. The health insurance companies who won't have to compete with a public plan are winners, the right wingers who have been disrupting townhalls and generally acting like assholes can also put a notch on their belts and maybe the biggest winners will be Republicans in Congress. You see its pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point that some kind of health care reform bill will be passed. So Republicans almost from the start have instead focused on defining winning or losing by whether or not a public option is included in the final bill. Mind you in 4 out of 5 committees in Congress they really didn't have a say in whether or not there was a public option and thus in those 4 out of 5 committees one was included. But Max Baucus in his infinite wisdom (snark) decided to even the playing field for Republicans in his committee which is about as undemocratic as it gets. And they took full advantage with Chuck Grassley coming out early and often against a public plan. So you had better believe that if a public option is dropped the GOP will plant its flag and claim victory over "ObamaCare".

On the other hand who loses if a public option isn't included. Well the American people first of all who in poll after poll overwhelmingly support a public option. The liberal and progressive base of the party also loses because we worked our asses off to help get President Obama and other Democrats elected at least partially because he campaigned on health care reform with a public option included. We have also vigorously defended him and fact checked his opponents just so we could keep the public option in the final bill. But the biggest losers of all will be President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Please allow me to explain.

First and foremost the Democrats in Congress, no matter what district or state they represent, have to have their base to vote for them in order for them to win elections. If they lose their liberal and progressive base or we decide not to come out and vote for the midterms then no matter how many "independents" they attract they have no shot of winning reelection. As I have said before its not "independents" who go out and hand out flyers, and hold online fundraisers, and phone bank, and do GOTV campaigns. Its the face painting DFH base who does the majority of those things. Good luck trying to get some "centrist" Democrats to do that kind of dirty work for the party.

Now ask yourself who exactly is energized on either side of the coin of the public option? If President Obama comes out and drops a public option next week who is going to get excited? Will "independents" now flock to him and the rest of the Democrats because he has shown he is willing to negotiate? Not likely. Especially when at this point it is going to appear as if he got punked into dropping it. Independents who lean either way like to see a decisive leader and for President Obama to have come out strongly for a public option up until this time over and over again just to let it go will not look to them like strength.

On the other hand should President Obama come out strong and demands a public option next week what will be the aftermath. Well for one he is going to fire up the base as he has not done to date. Any efforts at promoting health care reform has still been restrained because for months we have been hearing he is going to sell us out and not a lot has been done to refute that sentiment. That move would be a unifying event which would shift the momentum for sure and you would see a new level of engagement from the base that has been lacking here of late.

Not only that but for any independents who may move away because they are against the public option, President Obama and the Democrats will pick up those independents who have just been waiting to see Obama to get his swagger back. Say what you will about George W. Bush, the guy had swag. And honestly, if he was fighting for the right kinds of policies most of us would have a lot of admiration for the guy and how self assured he came off. For all of his oratory skills, lately President Obama just hasn't seemed to exude the confidence he had last year during this time. Coming out strong for an initiative that he campaigned on would definitely give him that swagger back.

The other benefit of coming out strong for a public option is that it puts all the pressure exactly where it should be right now and thats on the Conserva Dems in the Senate. A lot of pundits aren't speaking on this but the Blue Dogs in the House have already essentially endorsed a public option before the break started. Every bill coming out of the house includes a public option and there really is no way that anything passed over there won't have one in it. But in the Senate, even though the only bill to come out of committee also includes a public option, the media framing has been that its the liberals and progressives in the Senate who would be the obstructionist if they insisted on a public option.

Think on that for a moment. Four out of five committees have produced a bill with a public option, the overwhelming majority of the Democrats in Congress endorse a public option, President Obama himself has campaigned on and pushed for a public option, and yet because a handful, and I mean a handful, of Democratic Senators are bought and paid for by the health insurance industry, every one of the Democrats who are for a public option are now seen as the obstructionists. How ass backwards is that? That isn't balance and that isn't Democracy. That is Orwellian governance and it should not stand.

So President Obama demands a public option. Now the spotlight is on the ConservaDems. Should we go through reconciliation (which of course I feel is the best option) ten Democrats would have to side with the Republicans against health care reform and sign their name to history. Do you REALLY think there are 10 Democrats in the Senate with that kind of spine? Do you really think there are 10 Democrats in the Senate who are willing to be the footnotes of history in such fashion?

I certainly don't.

But lets say there are. Lets say the ConservaDems roll everyone else and vote down a health care reform bill. Who do you think pays in that situation? I can tell you who won't catch hell and thats President Obama and any Democrat in Congress that voted for health care reform. Not only that because he would have showed leadership on the issue President Obama would probably make gains in his approval ratings. No "independents" are going to go running to Blanche Lincoln or Evan Bayh or Ben Nelson because they "stood up to the libruls". Those cats might as well bend over and kiss their Senate seats goodbye if they vote against health care reform. Thats not even to speak about the kind of threats they should be getting behind the scenes from Rahmbo. If these folks could muster up the courage to vote down health care reform then if you ask me what we would be seeing is the end of the ConservaDems in the Senate. And I for one wouldn't blink an eye about it. If we can't get a Democratic health care reform bill with 59 Democratic Senators then maybe what we need is better Democratic Senators. Failing that 50 Democrats in the Senate would seem to wield the same power as the 59 we have right now. (Vice Presidents break a tie)

Im just sayin.

Now I could be wrong about the poltics on this, maybe someone out there can explain to me the down side of President Obama putting his foot down on a public option next week, or better yet they can show me the upside of him walking away from it, politically. If you can I am here to listen with an open mind. But if you can't maybe its time you got with the program and added your voice to those calling for a public option. That is, if you are really concerned about how it all plays out and not just trolling off what the media is telling you.

Compare And Contrast

Congressman Phil Gingrey yesterday in Politico

"I mean, it's easy if you're Sean Hannity or Rush Limbaugh or even sometimes Newt Gingrich to stand back and throw bricks. You don't have to try to do what's best for your people and your party.You know you're just on these talk shows and you're living well and plus you stir up a bit of controversy and gin the base and that sort of thing. But when it comes to true leadership, not that these people couldn't be or wouldn't be good leaders, they're not in that position of John Boehner or Mitch McConnell,"

Congressman Phil Gingrey today after getting phone calls from dittoheads

As long as I am in the Congress, I will continue to fight for and defend our sacred values. I have actively opposed every bailout, every rebate check, every so called “stimulus.” And on so many of these things, I see eye-to-eye with Rush Limbaugh. Regardless of what yesterday’s headline may have read, I never told Rush to back off. I regret and apologize for the fact that my comments have offended and upset my fellow conservatives—that was not my intent. I am also sorry to see that my comments in defense of our Republican Leadership read much harsher than they actually were intended, but I recognize it is my responsibility to clarify my own comments.

Now more than ever, we need to articulate a clear conservative message that distinguishes our values and our approach from those of liberal Democrats who are seeking to move our nation in the wrong direction. Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Newt Gingrich, and other conservative giants are the voices of the conservative movement’s conscience. Everyday, millions and millions of Americans—myself included—turn on their radios and televisions to listen to what they have to say, and we are inspired by their words and by their determination. At the end of the day, every member of the conservative movement, from our political commentators and thinkers to our elected officials, share an important and common purpose in advancing the cause of liberty, reigning in a bloated federal government, and defending our traditional family values.

I think it's clear who runs the Republican Party and it for damn sure aint Congressman Gingrey


(h/t Sullivan)